Who is going to the playoffs in Division 5?

[gvgrizzlyfan]

Folks,
First looking for a confirmation on how playoff selection and seeding takes place.

I think, first you have to be "playoff eligible" by the standards established by the CIF Southern Section, although under unique circumstances, if a full set of 16 teams did not meet the eligibility requirements in your respective division, they would open it up to all remaining teams that applied for a playoff "exception" or whatever they call it, but those teams would be selected last and only if there were any available slots.

1st place teams get selected first, 2nd place teams get selected after all first place teams have been selected, followed by third place teams in eligible slots of leagues with enough teams to get a playoff eligible third place team.

Once all 16 slots have been filled by the established eligibility prioritizing, then teams are seeded by the selection committee using multiple factors, that would allow a 2nd or 3rd place team to possibly get seeded ahead of a first place team. That is the way I understand it.

Now to who gets to the playoffs. I will use the calpreps.com rating system as my method of team selection.
1) Culver City (5-0).
I could have sworn I saw the ratings bounce back and forth today between CC & Glendora but my last look saw CC as #1 in D-5 for calpreps.com rankings. The Centaurs are not necessarily a lock to finish first in their Ocean League as they must face Div 3 Lawndale who has a slightly higher power ranking than the Centaurs. Worst case, the Centaurs finish 2cnd, going 9-1 overall. Anything else would be a shocking development. They will be playoff eligible and easily make the playoffs unless there are 16 first place teams in the Division. If they win against Lawndale, they will finish 10-0 and likely get the top seed or 2cnd seed, no worse than 4th seed. So a win against Lawndale is essential for CC to get the best playoff seeding possible.

2) Glendora (5-0).
Only Ayala (5-0) in the Palomares League looks strong enough to challenge the Tartans for first place, although Bonita(5-0) might want to argue otherwise. But the rankings favor Glendora and they should arrive in the playoffs as a first place team with a high seeding.

3) Oxnard(4-1) Pacifica (5-0) could present a challenge to first place in the Pacific View League for Oxnard but Oxnard is favored to take first place, at least by the current power rankings in calpreps.com. Even if Oxnard falters against Pacifica, they will fall no lower than 2nd in league and still be playoff eligible.

More to follow, if I get a chance.

 

[gvgrizzlyfan]

Due to time constraints, I think the easiest thing to do is to go to the bottom portion of the CIFss Div5 rankings and start with who will not make since there are 21 teams in the division and 16 will make it.

Who is out?

21st ranked Corona (1-5) from the tough Big VIII league that contains Corona Centennial and Norco likely has a chance at only one more win this season. Not enough to get playoff eligible.

20th ranked Antelope Valley (1-5) from the Golden League got crushed last Friday by league favorite Highland, but the Antelopes still project to pick up 4 wins which allow them to apply for a playoff spot based upon a .500 record. But they will still not likely get one of the 3 Golden League playoff eligible positions and it would be third place at best even if they do. Nevertheless, this Friday will be a big game for AV, 1-2 in league, as they battle favored Quartz Hill (3-3, 3-0) for likely who will end up as the third place playoff eligible team.

19th ranked Oak Hills (2-4, 1-0) of the Mojave River is favored to finish a playoff eligible third with the game against underdog Hesperia (3-3, 0-1) being the deciding factor for third place.

18th ranked Newbury Park (3-3, 0-1) is the sacrificial lamb in the tough Marmonte League this year and is unlikely to win any league games, leaving them without the ability to meet minimum playoff requirements. They are likely to be out before AV or Oak Hills.

17th ranked Colony (2-4, 1-0) prevailed by 40-7 over lowly Alta Loma (1-5) last week in the tough Palomares League that also contains Glendora. But only one more win is conceivably even possible which should leave them as one of those locked out of the playoffs.

16th ranked Saugus (3-3, 0-1) will have to fight an uphill battle in the Foothill League to even achieve an unlikely third place eligibility, but might be able to get to .500 if they can beat favored Golden Valley (5-1, 0-1) this week and avoid any upset attempt by Canyon (2-2, 0-1). Saugus has given GV fits in the past and I am not sure if the Grizzlies have ever beat them.

15th ranked Mayfair (2-5) projects to get to a playoff eligible 2nd place in the 4 team Suburban league as long as they can avoid the upset by Norwalk (4-3). La Mirada (5-2) will be too tough for Mayfair this week, leaving 2nd place as the only option for playoff eligibility.

14th ranked El Modena (4-2) is unlikely to beat either Villa Park or Yorba Linda which they would have to beat at least one of them to get into a playoff eligible second place slot in the 4 team Crestview League. Still, a .500 record is achievable so El Modena might be able to apply for a playoff spot with it appearing that there is likely not going to be enough teams among the top 16 that will be a lock for a playoff eligible spot.

13th ranked Bishop Diego (3-3, 0-1) is unlikely to secure one of the 2 playoff eligible slots from the 5 team Camino League and will have to beat slightly favored Moorpark to have a shot at a .500 record.

12th ranked Lompoc (4-2) and 11th ranked Citrus Hill (5-1) look like playoff locks.

10th ranked Etiwanda (4-2,1-0) is in a tough fight for even third & final playoff eligible spot in the 6 team Baseline League. They must beat both Damien and Chino Hills in games that are too close to call. If they can at least beat one, they will get to .500 in a highly regarded league that I think would allow them to still get selected for a playoff spot in Division 5.

9th ranked Chino Hills (2-4, 0-1), also in D-5, faces essentially the same challenge as Etiwanda.

8th ranked St. Bonaventure (5-2, 1-0) would have to upset 2 of their remaining Marmonte League opponents to get to playoff eligible 2nd place in the 5 team league, but can likely apply and get selected due to how few D-5 teams are achieving playoff eligible positions in their league.

#7 Diamond Ranch (3-3, 1-0), #6 Aquinas (4-2, 1-0), #5 Yorba Linda (5-1) and #4 St. Paul (5-2, 1-0) all project to be playoff eligible locks for D-5.

 

[doctrk]

Nice job grizz

 

[Dave Keefer]

Great work Grizz!

 

[gvgrizzlyfan]

Looks pretty firm now on picks. I think the top 15 on calpreps.com are gonna make it.
Culver City, 8-0, 3-0
Oxnard, 7-1, 3-0
Glendora 7-1, 3-1
St. Paul 6-2, 2-0
Yorba Linda 7-1, 1-0
Diamond Ranch 5-3, 3-0
Chino Hills 4-4, 2-1
Acquinas

 

[gvgrizzlyfan]

With just two weeks left in the regular season, things are firming up pretty well as to who will be a Division 5 playoff team. I think the top 14 in the current calpreps.com ranking will all make the playoffs, but the last selection may have to come from teams that do not meat minimum playoff eligibility requirements. The 17th ranked team will leapfrog over the 15th & 16th ranked teams because they will meet the minimum requirements for playoff eligibility.
1. Culver City 8-0, 3-0
2. Oxnard 7-1, 3-0
3. Glendora 7-1, 2-1
4. St. Paul 6-2, 2-0
5. Yorba Linda 7-1, 1-0
6. Diamond Ranch 5-3, 3-0
7. Chino Hills 4-4, 2-1
8. Acquinas 6-2, 2-0
9. St. Bonaventure 5-4, 1-2
10. Etiwanda 5-3, 2-1
11. Citrus Hill 7-1, 2-1
12. Lompoc 5-3, 2-1
13. Mayfair 3-5, 1-0
14. El Modena 4-4, 0-1
17. Oak Hills 4-4, 3-0 Oak Hills projects to finish 3rd, losing their last two, to Serrano and Apple Valley, but still good enough for a playoff eligible third place in the tough Mojave River League.
15. Bishop Diego 3-5, 0-2. They will likely not achieve playoff eligibility, but neither will any of the other 5 remaining teams in the Division. They may have to state their case vs Colony of the Palomares League.
16. Colony 2-6, 1-2 has a reasonable shot at winning one of their last 2 games against Clarement 5-3, 1-2). A win in that game would increase their ability to claim their worthiness to be selected for the playoffs.
18. Newbury Park 3-5, 0-3 OUT
19. Saugus 3-5, 0-3 OUT
20. Antelope Valley, 2-6, 2-3 OUT
21. Corona 1-7, 0-3 OUT