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Division 11, week 7 postgame, week 8 pregame

gvgrizzlyfan

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Aug 15, 2005
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The Culver City Centaurs (6-1, 1-1) maintained its spot atop both the CIF-SS Division 11 poll and the calpreps rankings despite their 14-33 loss to Lawndale (7-0). Lawndale has always been the Ocean League favorites and are the #4 team in D-5. I thought calpreps might keep the Centaurs on top, but I was almost sure the CIF-SS poll would go for undefeated Arroyo (8-0) of El Monte as the top dog in D-11. For the Centaurs it means they are almost surely relegated to a 2nd place finish in the 6 team Ocean League unless the El Segundo Eagles (6-1, 1-1) can pull the upset in what would normally be Lawndale's trap game. But since Lawndale lost to El Segundo last year, 14-7, I think Lawndale will be highly focused and motivated for this contest. For the Centaurs, that drops them into a four way tie for second place with two of those opponents still to be faced.

Culver did beat El Segundo 46-27 two weeks ago, so they don't have to worry about them and the Centaurs will be heavily favored in their final three games. However both the Hawthorne Cougars (5-2, 1-1) who Culver plays this week and the Santa Monica Vikings (2-5, 1-1) should be games in which the Centaurs need to stay focused, lest they might drop from 2nd to 4th with a slip up against either opponent. You would not know it by the record, but the Vikings look like the tougher game now after they beat the Cougars 42-14. Did the Vikings get new players eligible or did the Cougars lose some or some combination thereof is unknown, but first up is Hawthorne for the Centaurs. Calpreps projects it as a 61-12 Centaur victory, but that is awful high. How about we go with 52-28 in favor of the Centaurs?

The #2 Arroyo (of El Monte) Knights easily & methodically took care of business in a 33-0 victory over the El Monte Lions (4-3, 2-1). All 10 teams selected by the CIF-SS poll & by Calpreps.com are assigned to the same positions. Junior QB Ernesto Camacho was 24 of 36 for 306 yards and 4 TD's with no interceptions. The running game was not much to speak of but it was not needed with the passing performance of Camacho and his receivers. Senior receiver Ray Cotero led the way with 9 receptions for 143 yards and 2 TD's. Senior RB Steven Ocariz had 6 catches for 84 yards and the other 2 TD's. There was 1 rushing TD. It was only 13-0 at the half but Arroyo broke it open in the third with 2 more scores.
Arroyo has their easiest game of the year this week against Marshall (1-6, 0-3) of Pasadena. The calpreps prediction is a 62-0 victory for Arroyo.

#3 are the Arcadia Apaches (4-3, 3-1) and they had an easy game against the Hoover Tornadoes (0-6), winning 47-18 and they will have another easy one this week against the Glendale Nitros (2-5, 0-4). A great mascot name but a lousy team. Arcadia could fall into a tie for third place with a team or two in the Pacific League but they hold the edge against either of those teams if head to head is the first tie breaker. They will have to hope that their high regard in the polls and rankings makes them an early selection, among third place teams, for the D-11 playoffs. Calpreps projects a 52-3 win over Glendale.

#4 are the Covina Colts (5-2, 1-1). They suffered a 28-42 setback against the favored Northview Vikings (5-2, 2-0) in Valle Vista League play. Covina showed fight early but Northview stretched the lead out to 28-7 just before the half. Covina attempted to rally late in the third quarter closing the gap to 28-14, but Northview almost immediately scored again on a rushing TD. Northview senior QB Steven Comstock was a modestly good 7 of 14 for 152 yards passing with 1 TD, but he was an absolute beast running the ball, carrying 26 times for 236 yards & 3 TD's. RB & fellow senior teammate J. Castillo Jr. contributed an additional 187 yards & 2 TD's on just 7 carries including a 68 yarder.

Covina, like Culver City, is in a 4 way tie for second place in their Valle Vista League. The good news is that they hold the head to head advantage over San Dimas (4-3, 1-1) who they beat 36-35, and the other two current second place teams do not project to be a significant challenge for Covina. This week Covina faces the Baldwin Park Braves (3-4, 0-2). A loss by the Braves would virtually eliminate them from consideration for the Division 12 playoffs, but even with that motivation, the calpreps projection so heavily favors Covina, 50-14, that I don't think they have a chance. For Covina, much like Culver City, it will be a matter of just staying focused and taking care of business this last 3 weeks of league play, although Covina's path looks a little easier than what Culver City has to face in the Ocean League.

#5 is the Segerstrom Jaguars (6-1, 2-0). The Jaguars hold the mathematical advantage in the tough Golden West League due to their league record. They beat league doormat Loara (2-5, 0-2) last week 42-3, but the easy games are now over in league. This week they face the Orange High Panthers (6-1, 1-1). Last week Orange was defeated in league by fellow D-11 hopeful, the Westminster Lions, 35-29. Orange was favored by just 2 points in that contest. This week, Segerstrom is at home and Orange is favored by 1, in a 22-21 projected win for Orange.

#6 is the Westminster Lions (5-2, 1-1). They lost their first Golden West league contest to now league favorite, the Santa Ana Saints (6-1, 2-0), the #2 rated team in D-12. They had an exciting back n forth contest with Orange last week in which the lead changed hands several times and the score was at 22-22 after 3 quarters. With 8 minutes to go in the game, the Lion's Noah Melbon tossed a 25yd TD pass to Chris Samilton and they took a 29-22 lead. Orange started the next drive at their own 39 and with about 3 minutes to go, they scored on a QB Jason Wilkinson 10 yd pass to Jordan Schmidt which tied the game at 29-29. But with less than a minute to play, the Lions got inside the Orange 20 and finished it off with a 5 yard rushing touchdown by Christian Jaime. They missed their extra point but were able to hold on for the very important 35-29 victory.

While Segerstrom still faces the three toughest teams in league, Westminster's schedule is a little softer with an easy win against Loara to close out the regular season. Westminster and Segerstrom will meet in 2 weeks to determine Division 11 preferred selection position IF both teams can take care of business. This week Westminster is at home facing a winnable but still challenging game against the Ocean View Seahawks (4-3, 0-2). This would be the Lions trap game, if they find themselves looking forward to Segerstrom, they could get into trouble. Ocean View lost big to Santa Ana last week by 6-51 and lost to Segerstrom 28-13 the week before that. Ocean View features the two "Noah's" QB Noah Hickman with 891 yards passing & 10 TD's along with RB Noah De Loera who has run for 840 yards and 8 TD's in 6 games. Westminster will probably be able to slow them down some. Calpreps projection of a 35-21 Lions victory seems about right.

#7 is the Katella Knights (6-1, 2-0) and they are cruising through Orange League play, beating Valley (1-6, 1-1) of Santa Ana last week, 49-14. Katella is #7 in D-11 despite the fact that they beat Westminster by 2 points, 22-20, earlier this year. It will be just as easy for the Knights the rest of the league season. This week they will rout Century (4-3, 0-2). Calpreps projects a 42-10 Katella victory. With their 1st place league finish and their fairly high ranking, perhaps they may be able to secure a top 4 seed in D-11.
 
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#8 is the Rancho Mirage Rattlers (4-3, 1-1) who returned to winning form with a 35-13 victory over 29 Palms (5-2, 1-1). The return of star RB Marques Prior was probably key to the victory as he chalked up 200 yards rushing on 21 carries. Their QB had only 2 pass completions on 5 attempts, but 1 of them was for a TD. They had 311 yards rushing for the team combined. The Rattlers are in a 4 way tie for 2nd place right now in the De Anza League.

They won the head to head against 29 Palms and now face the 2nd toughest game in league against the Yucca Valley Trojans (6-1, 1-1). The Trojans can both run & throw and almost won the game last week against the Coachella Valley Arabs (5-2, 2-0). The Trojans had a 20-7 lead on the Arabs after they returned a fumble for a TD with 5 minutes left before the half. It remained that way until the Arabs super QB Armando Deniz ran for a TD with about 5 minutes left in the third. But the Trojans pushed further ahead again with a rushing TD and 2 pt conversion run with about a minute left in the third. Deniz and the Arabs would not go away though. Deniz scored again running in from about 10 yards out with 11 minutes left to play in the game, closing the gap to 21-28. Then with under a minute remaining, Deniz again ran the ball in from about 15 yards out. The Arabs went for 2 and scored on a run by Jeremiah Perez. CV beat YV 29-28. CV's Deniz had 302 yards passing but no TD's through the air, but made up for that with 87 yards rushing of his own with 4 TD's. YV's junior QB Elijah Lynch had 122 yards passing & 1 TD, while he also ran for 222 yards & 2 TD's. Rancho should have their hands full defending against him.

Calpreps projects it as a 31-30 Rancho victory over YV, but I would call this one a must see game for folks in the area. A LOT at stake for both teams. Coachella Valley is also in D-11 and projects to finish ahead of Rancho now, with their game against 29 Palms, in week 9, being the only substantive challenge remaining.
 
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#9 is the Hillcrest Trojans (5-2, 1-1) of Riverside. They lost a heartbreaker last week to the Patriot Warriors(6-1, 2-0). You can read the details here:

http://www.pe.com/2017/10/13/patriot-edges-hillcrest-on-john-obers-late-two-point-conversion/

The loss dropped Hillcrest into a tie for 3rd place with the La Sierra Eagles (4-3, 1-1) in the 6 team River Valley League. The good news is that no other team in league looks as good as Patriot, and Hillcrest almost won that game. Hillcrest will take on the Eagles this week. The Eagles have shown some ability to pass and run the ball, but against lesser competition. Hillcrest will be the toughest team they have seen so far this year, and then they play Patriot the week after Hillcrest. Calpreps.com projects a 35-19 victory for Hillcrest over La Sierra. If Hillcrest takes care of business the rest of the way, and gets a little help from Patriot against Norte Vista (2-5, 2-0), they should still be able to secure 2nd place and a guaranteed Division 11 playoff entry.

#10 is the St. Genevieve Valiants (5-1). The Valiants cruised to a 49-0 victory last week against the Cantwell-Sacred Heart Cardinals (3-4). The Cardinals projected to be slightly better than three of the powder puffs the Valiants had on their schedule but still not anywhere the strength they will face in order win the Santa Fe League. They finally start league play in the 4 team Santa Fe League. The Valiants take on the toughest team in league and the toughest team they have faced since West Ranch (5-1).

The Valiants will host the St. Anthony Saints (4-3) at Valley College in Van Nuys this Saturday night. The Saints have sustained some losses but mostly because they faced more talented teams than the Valiants including Gahr (6-1) & Valley Christian (5-2). Nevertheless, this game should decide the Santa Fe League championship, but even the loser is likely to make the playoffs. St. Anthony is led by senior QB Deshaun Harvey. Calpreps.com projects it to be a really close contest, a 21-20 victory for the Saints. This is certainly a game to watch among lower division CIFss football.

Other teams in the mix for the playoffs for D-11:
Victor Valley (4-4, 2-0) projecting to finish 2nd in the Desert Sky League.
Coachella Valley (5-2, 2-0) projecting to finish 1st in the De Anza League.
Heritage Christian (7-0, 1-0) projecting to finish 1st in the Olympic League.
Oak Park (3-3, 0-0) a shaky projection of finishing 2nd in the 4 team Canyon League.
Crean Lutheran (4-3, 1-0) projects to finish 2nd in the Academy League.
Torrance (3-4, 2-0) projects to a shaky 3rd in the 6 team Pioneer League.
Jurupa Hills (3-4, 1-1) projects to 2nd in the soft San Andreas League.
Rancho Alamitos (5-2, 2-0) projects to 3rd place in the 6 team Garden Grove League.
Pacific (6-1, 1-1) of San Bernardino, projects to 3rd in the 6 team Mountain Valley League.
Tahquitz (3-4, 1-1) projects to 3rd in the 6 team Mountain Pass League.

That is about 20 teams battling for 16 playoff spots. So if you finish in 3rd place in a league that has an eligible playoff entry from third place, that may not be good enough to get you into the playoffs.
 
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They weren't far off. Thursday's game score was 56-28
When we get to this point of the season, calpreps is rarely much off the mark. But as I have said before, any calpreps projection within 7 or 8 points of each other means that the underdog is good enough to pull the upset.
 
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